Andy Carroll claimed yesterday that he believes West Ham can continue reaching for the top.
Most media outlets twisted his words and told the gullible general public that he reckons West Ham can win the Premier League title. Cue laughter and finger pointing and in our general direction.
We all know he didn’t actually say that. What he meant, no doubt, is that the club is moving in the right direction and if we continue to perform at our current level and improve then there’s no reason why we can’t go on and challenge for such honours in years to come.
But what can we achieve this year? A top ten finish? Surely. A top eight finish? Possibly. How about top six? Always a chance. Top four? Next to no chance.
But, according to experienced football statistician/tactician 11tegen11 on Twitter, we have 34% chance of finishing in the top four this season. THIRTY FOUR PER CENT. Blimey.
Now, let’s not get ourselves carried away here. We don’t know his methodology and how he came to that number, but given that he’s got Chelsea (100%) and Man City (99%), who will undoubtedly finish in the top two, and Arsenal who always finish in the top four at 81%, you have to wonder.
Man United may have leapfrogged us in to third with their win against Southampton on Monday, but that still gives them a 31% chance of Champions League qualification.
What tells us is that the race for the final place for next season’s Champions League could involve us, Southampton (33%) and United.
Only one of us can get it and, if the below graph is anything to go by, we’re favourites at the moment. Can we continue our current form and actually put up a season long bid for top four? Only time will tell. But can you imagine the scenes?
Here’s what my model did tonight. United from 25 to 31% for top-4, S’hampton from 39 to 33%. Nice race for fouth! pic.twitter.com/EIZ5qYbXtk
— 11tegen11 (@11tegen11) December 8, 2014