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Julen Lopetegui is back in the crosshairs of those who believe the club made the wrong decision by appointing him to replace David Moyes this summer. 

The Spaniard was tasked with improving the club’s fortunes after Moyes oversaw a sorry end to what was largely an incredibly successful four-and-a-half years in charge. That would ultimately include a change in style of play and an overhaul of the squad, which was ageing and lacking in any kind of depth.

After 10 games in all competitions, Lopetegui has won just three and there is little sign of a change in style of play. If anything, many fans are still wondering what the style actually is. There are, admittedly, issues that need to be fixed.

But is 10 games really enough time for any manager, let alone one who has managed Sevilla, Real Madrid and Spain, to deliver what West Ham’s board and fans want?

It was a summer of serious change and upheaval. A new manager, new coaches, a Technical Director who was finally able to get to work without any interference from the manager, nine new first-team players and the not so easy task of coaching out a style of play that was very defensive in nature and replacing it with a philosophy that prioritised possession.

To have all that go on in such a short space of time means there was never any realistic chance of things going smoothly from the off. Indeed they could’ve done. But they haven’t, and there are so many reasons why that is. But it wasn’t unreasonable to expect this kind of upheaval to take time and to foresee at least some of the issues that are playing out in front of us right now.

But to some, three wins in 10 matches is enough for them to have made their minds up. Lopetegui is not the guy. He can’t be the guy. He’ll never be the guy.

David Moyes also struggled at the start

Dejected David Moyes

But let’s roll back the years a little to see why this kind of reactive sensationalism towards Lopetegui’s early performance doesn’t really hold much credence to the argument that things will never improve under him.

Back in December 2019, Manuel Pellegrini was shown the door after a run of two wins in 13 Premier League fixtures had us sitting just outside the relegation zone on goal difference. David Moyes returned to save the day for a second time, but it wasn’t plain sailing from the off.

The Scot won his first two games, a 4-0 home victory over Bournemouth and a 2-0 win against Gillingham in the FA Cup. But they would prove to be his only wins in his first 10 games, as he oversaw defeats to Sheffield United, Leicester City, Manchester City, Liverpool twice and West Brom at home in the FA Cup.

By that time, we had slipped in to the relegation zone. A win over Southampton broke the run, but then he went on to lose three on the bounce to Arsenal, Tottenham and Wolves, admittedly with an enforced three month break in between thanks to the global pandemic.

Now, some eagle eyed readers out there might be pointing towards the two very difference situations Moyes and Lopetegui found themselves in, and I agree to an extent that there are differences. The biggest difference, though, is that there was so much more at stake where Moyes is concerned. He arrived mid-season to steer us clear of the bottom three and after 10 games, we’d slipped in to it. He had 11 games to keep us up, and at the time we looked doomed.

But the club stuck with him. They were patient and gave him time. A lot of that time was forced due to the pandemic, but that arrived after his 12th game in charge. They had plenty of time to pull the trigger again and make another change. But they didn’t, and thank they god for that, because Moyes went on to keep us in the Premier League and then take us on a journey everyone believed to be impossible. Three consecutive years in Europe for the first time in the club’s history, European silverware and two top-seven Premier League finishes.

It was a glorious era built on trust and time.

Back to present day, and Lopetegui finds himself under immense pressure despite boasting a marginally better record than Moyes had after 10 games, and has only lost to teams who finished in the top six of last season’s Premier League. Yes, the manner of some of those defeats have been disappointing, but let’s not sit here and act like we’re not used to being thrashed by the likes of Chelsea, Tottenham or Liverpool. This is West Ham United we’re talking about here.

Giving the manager time can pay off

Iraola

Comparisons can also be made with other managers at other clubs who also struggled to begin with before turning things around. Everyone knows Sir Alex Ferguson almost relegated Man United in his first season before going on to become the greatest manager of all time. More recently, Andoni Iraola won just two of his first 10 games as Bournemouth boss, and both of those came in the Carabao Cup. His first league win came in gameweek 10.

But then things clicked shortly afterwards. Following a 6-1 thrashing at the hands of Man City in gameweek 12, the Cherries went on a run of seven league games without loss, including victories over Newcastle and Man United. They would go on to finish the season in 12th, just four points behind West Ham in 9th, despite being in the bottom three and two points from safety after nine games.

This season, Iraola’s Bournemouth sit in 10th after the first eight Premier League games of the season, having just enjoyed a huge 2-0 home win over Arsenal. They would be better off, too, had it not been for a late goal in their home defeat to Chelsea and VAR injustice against Newcastle that robbed them of victory at the death.

I’m not saying Lopetegui will go on to become the greatest manager of all time, or that Bournemouth’s progress under Iraola is the yardstick we should be measuring our success by, but the proof is there that sometimes a bit of patience, time and trust in the process can reap rewards, no matter what level you’re at.

I can hear some of you pointing towards the level of investment Lopetegui had in his first summer and that’s a fair point to make. But to counter that, is it fair to expect any manager to integrate nine new first team players into a squad and expect them all to hit the ground running in their new surroundings? It’s a lot to do in one summer, let alone one entire season.

It’s not impossible, but it’s some pressure to put on a man who already has a big job on his hands as it is, without the expectation that comes with that job.

The new manager bounce rarely lasts

Dejected Slaven Bilic

But what about the new manager bounce everyone else seems to have? New manager bounces are always fun, but they rarely end well. Slaven Bilic is the standout name in this conversation, after leading us to 7th in his first season. Within 18 months of that he was gone. Tim Sherwood won 16 points from an available 18 at the beginning of his time at Tottenham, but he still only lasted six months in the job.

If you want a more recent example, Oliver Glasner took the Palace job last February and despite a bit of a tough start with defeats to the likes of Tottenham and Man City, went on a run of seven wins in eight games to secure Crystal Palace only their second top 10 Premier League finish in history.

Many believed he could actually lead them into Europe this season if he could continue that kind of form. Now Palace are still waiting for their first win of the new season after eight games and have scored just five goals. That hype lasted long, didn’t it?

The only current outlier in this is Unai Emery, who hit the ground running at Villa and is still showing no signs of regression two years on. But the evidence suggests a really positive start doesn’t always mean things will stay that way forever.

Keep the faith

So am I saying Lopetegui will definitely turn things around if given the time to improve on what his team has already delivered? No, I’m not saying that. All I’m saying is that 10 games is no time at all for a manger to get everything absolutely perfect, especially when considering his predecessor had the exact same issues in his first 10 games. His predecessor went on to do great things, so it’s not out of the question to wonder whether Lopetegui could do the same.

He might not, and that’s ok. But sacking him now just doesn’t make sense to me because everything I’ve laid out above.

So how long do we give him? I don’t really know the answer to that question. If things don’t improve in the next couple of months and we’re, say, sitting in or around the bottom three by Christmas, then I think you could probably say a decision will need to be made one way or another. Perhaps by then we can safely say Lopetegui isn’t the guy.

But at the moment there isn’t a decision to be made. We should be sticking by him and giving him the benefit of the doubt given the difficult start he’s had fixtures wise and the huge job he’s been tasked with.

Don’t lose the faith just yet. Just imagine if we’d lost faith in David Moyes this quickly. Where would we be now and what would we have missed out on?

I know the answer to that one…