The manner of West Ham’s 1-0 home defeat to Arsenal on Sunday will have had many fans thinking the relegation battle was all but over.
But Tottenham’s 1-1 draw with Leeds on Monday night has instilled some belief back into supporters, with the gap between the Hammers and Spurs just two points with two games left to play.
It’s still out of West Ham’s hands, of course, and they need Tottenham to drop more points over the next fortnight, otherwise even maximum points won’t be enough to escape the drop.
But both clubs’ remaining fixtures will have West Ham believing there’s still one or two more twists and turns in this battle.
The Hammers travel to St. James’ Park to face Newcastle on Sunday, where they’ve lost just two of their last seven visits. What’s more, with Newcastle mathematically safe from the drop and unlikely to qualify for Europe, they no longer have much to play for.
Meanwhile, Tottenham face Chelsea at Stamford Bridge on Tuesday night. Spurs have notoriously found travels to west London difficult, with just one win in SW6 in the Premier League era.
While Roberto De Zerbi has improved Spurs since replacing Igor Tudor, going unbeaten in their last four league outings, they could go into that game with a lot of pressure if West Ham secure victory two days earlier, while the Blues need all three points to keep their European qualification hopes alive.
On the final day, West Ham host Leeds at London Stadium and Tottenham host Everton.
West Ham have lost just one of their last seven home games in the league, while Spurs have just two Premier League wins on their own patch all season. Leeds will have nothing to play for and Everton might need all three points to qualify for Europe.
So if it goes down to the final weekend, which is very likely now, both clubs’ home form and their opposition’s objectives will undoubtedly make West Ham favourites to survive.
Supercomputer predicts relegation battle
But Opta’s supercomputer doesn’t see it that way.
As things stand, they are predicting both West Ham and Tottenham to secure two points each in the final two fixtures.
That would mean West Ham’s 14-year Premier League stay will be over, trailing 17th-placed Spurs by two points.
In fact, they’re giving West Ham less than a 20% chance of escaping the drop, which is quite astonishing when you analyse the teams both sides still have to play.
Indeed, are now the form team out of the two, but they notoriously struggle at Stamford Bridge and have struggled at home all season. There’s every reason to predict that the lose both their remaining fixtures, which would mean West Ham need to win just one to survive.
But Opta don’t think that’s going to happen.
Somehow, though, I think there’s still plenty more twists and turns to come over the next fortnight.
