Well it certainly was worth the 90 days wait we had to see the Hammers kick off the season with a convincing win. Last week we recommended a first goal scorer from midfield and Joe Cole popped up, while anybody who took our Kevin Nolan First or Last goalscorer bet would have collected at 13/2.
On to this Saturday and Newcastle United, after their 4-0 defeat to Manchester City, will be hurting. So they’ll be looking to kick start their season at home in front of their fans. But the positive is that they looked totally out of sorts and will now be under pressure to perform at St. James’ Park.
We are hoping our away form can improve this season as the stats don’t look too good over our last 20 games:
- West Ham have won 20%, drawn 20% and lost 60% of their last 20 away games.
- The Hammers have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their last 20 games on the road.
- West Ham have failed to score in 45% of their last 20 away games.
So let’s look at what value is out there and see if we can recommend a few bets…
First & Last Goal scorer is a popular bet and this season some of the layers are giving special odds, so it’s worth shopping around. Last weekend BoyleSports gave double the odds on first goalscorer so the 10/1 on Joe Cole paid 20/1.
What do the stats tell us?
- West Ham have scored first in 20% of their last 20 away games.
- In their last 20 away games, 31% of the 13 goals scored by West Ham have come from forwards, 46% from midfielders and 15% from defenders.
- In their last 20 away games, 47% of the 32 goals conceded by West Ham have come from forwards, 44% from midfielders and 6% from defenders.
Once again, without Andy Carroll, the midfield looks the most likely source of a goal and we will keep our faith in the midfield and start with Joe Cole 11/1 first goalscorer (best price with PaddyPower) he looked up for it last week and could follow up again.
How many times does a player come back to haunt an old team? Kevin Nolan could easily do that at odds of 8/1 first goalscorer (all layers). If you think we can sneak a 1-0 and Kevin Nolan to score, you can get 45/1 with PaddyPower, Coral and William Hill.
Next up is the first goal assist market and Stewart Downing and Matt Jarvis are both 11/1 with BoyleSports and look the most likely, but this bet has to be made with caution as we don’t know Sam’s preferred starting 11 yet – and we probably won’t until we get three or four games in to the season.
Finally, after looking at the stats and our away form, maybe a draw is a good bet and Sky Bet are offering 7/2 for the game to end 1-1, 2-2 or 3-3.
Lots to ponder but, our recommended bet this week is:
- Kevin Nolan 1st goalscorer: 8/1 with most layers
- 1-1, 2-2 or 3-3 draw: 7/2 with Sky Bet
Remember, don’t let the Claret & Blue heart rule the head. It’s a long season.
Let us know what you’re bets you’re doing via Twitter, Facebook or by commenting in the comments section below. ‘til’ next week. Come On You Irons!
