After a demoralising defeat in our last ever FA CUP game at the Boleyn Ground against Man Utd, the focus now shifts towards 4th place to have a chance of qualifying for the Champions League. Man City, Man Utd and West Ham have all been in the running for the spot with Southampton lurking 2 points behind.
So let’s look at the Statistics…
Averages based on 32 League games…
Manchester City
Overall Home points per game – 2.00pts
Overall Away points per game – 1.53pts
Overall Home Goals +/- per game – 2.41/1.12
Overall Away Goals +/- per game – 1.13/0.93
Manchester United
Overall Home points per game – 2.07pts
Overall Away points per game – 1.29pts
Overall Home Goals +/- per game – 1.33/0.47
Overall Away Goals +/- per game – 1.12/1.35
West Ham United
Overall Home points per game – 1.75pts
Overall Away points per game – 1.50pts
Overall Home Goals +/- per game – 1.69/1.19
Overall Away Goals +/- per game – 1.56/1.31
Remaining six games…
Manchester City (32 Games played – 57 Points +25GD)
33 – Chelsea (A)
34 – Newcastle United (A)
35 – Stoke City (H)
36 – Southampton (A)
37 – Arsenal (H)
38 – Swansea City (A)
Manchester United (32 Games played – 53 Points +9GD)
33 – Aston Villa (H)
34 – Crystal Palace (H)
35 – Leicester City (H)
36 – Norwich City (A)
37 – West Ham (A)
38 – AFC Bournemouth (H)
West Ham United (32 Games played – 52 Points +12GD)
33 – Leicester City (A)
34 – Watford (H)
35 – West Bromwich Albion (A)
36 – Swansea City (H)
37 – Manchester United (H)
38 – Stoke City (A)
Match – week-by-week
Now we have the averages and fixtures, let’s look at a match week by week basis and how the teams will perform by acquiring their current averages.
Bold indicates (most points gained in match week)…
MATCH WEEK 33
(A) Man City – 1.53pts – 1.13/0.93
(H) Man Utd – 2.07pts – 1.33/0.47
(A) West Ham – 1.5pts – 1.56/1.31
MATCH WEEK 34
(A) Man City – 1.53pts – 1.13/0.93
(H) Man Utd – 2.07pts – 1.33/0.47
(H) West Ham – 1.75pts – 1.69/1.19
MATCH WEEK 35
(H) Man City – 2.00pts – 2.41/1.12
(H) Man Utd – 2.07pts – 1.33/0.47
(A) West Ham – 1.5pts – 1.56/1.31
MATCH WEEK 36
(A) Man City – 1.53pts – 1.13/0.93
(A) Man Utd – 1.29pts – 1.12/1.35
(H) West Ham – 1.75pts – 1.69/1.19
MATCH WEEK 37
(H) Man City – 2.00pts – 2.41/1.12
(A) Man Utd – 1.29pts – 1.12/1.35
(H) West Ham – 1.75pts – 1.69/1.19
MATCH WEEK 38
(A) Man City – 1.53pts – 1.13/0.93
(H) Man Utd – 2.07pts – 1.33/0.47
(A) West Ham – 1.5pts – 1.56/1.31
OUTCOME
Over the remaining six games in the Premier League Manchester United have gained the most average points in four out of six fixtures, with West Ham and Manchester City only gaining more average points by one match week each.
Manchester United have the highest PPG at home with 2.07 and by having four home fixtures, they gain eights points, so their home fixtures are vital for their push.
Manchester city have the highest PPG away from home with 1.53 and by having four games away from home, their away days will be tough – they can’t afford to lose as theyt will gain an average of six points.
West Ham United have the worst PPG at home out of the three teams with 1.75 pts – wins against Watford, Swansea and Man United in the final three games at home could raise the average points slightly to approximately 1.89.
West Ham are slightly below Man City in away form with 1.5 points per game, but if the Hammers can win on the road against Title hopefuls Leicester City, a stubborn Pulis side West Brom and a solid Stoke City, our average points per game will rise to 1.73.
It’s safe to say that if all the clubs did happen to have the same points at the end of the season, Man City will finish higher due to their huge goal difference – I can’t see them conceding 15 goals.
Over the six games, Man City in total will score 9.34 (9) goals and concede 5.96 (6). Man United will score 7.56 (7) goals but will let in 4.58 (5). West Ham on the other hand, are predicted to not add too many goals onto their final goal difference tally, even though they will score a total of 9.75 (10) goals but conceding 7.5 (8).
Here is the final league position based on the mathematics above…
4th Place – Manchester City – 67 points with a +28 Goal Difference
5th Place – Manchester United – 64 points with a +11 Goal Difference
6th Place – West Ham United – 62 points with a +14 Goal Difference.
So in conclusion, West Ham will have to defy their current season average to finish with 70 points if the two Manchester clubs maintain their averages – that means winning every game, which isn’t impossible but all depends on Manchester City dropping six points.
Football is a funny old game and anything can happen, but can West Ham win every remaining game this season? West Ham’s longest unbeaten run this season is seven games and we have achieved that twice, but our longest winning run has only been three games. If we did maintain a winning run on top of our current run, we will be unbeaten in 13 games!
In 2006/2007 season, the Great Escape campaign, Tevez and Zamora were the stars who helped west ham finish the season with a winning streak of four games. In the season before, we maintained a winning run of five games.
The last time we qualified for European football and finished 5th in the league was 1998/99 season and we only had a winning run of three games.
Our most successful run was in the 1985/86 season, where we had a seven game winning run from 2nd Nov 1985 to 14th December 1985. Towards the end of that season, we had a six game winning run from 8th April 1986 – 3rd May 1986, a run which featured Alvin Martin scoring a hat-trick against three Newcastle keepers. If we had beaten Everton on the day we would have equaled our highest run and won the league.
Also, the 1985-86 season is the last season we had a positive goal difference in top flight football.
We need to pick ourselves up as fans to pick the players up, they need to know that they have our support and that every remaining game is winnable.
18 points is a big ask, but if they managed to do it, it could quite possibly be the greatest challenge to the top four ever and completely change the dynamics of the Premier League.
Six more games, let’s do this and write history! Come on you Irons!
